Pew Study Finds Trump Would Win 2024 With Full Voter Turnout

A series of analyses from the Pew Research Center and other sources reveal that President Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election was driven primarily by strong turnout among his existing base and the expansion of a more racially and generationally diverse coalition within the Republican Party. Trump retained 85% of his 2020 voters, while Kamala Harris secured 79% of Joe Biden's 2020 supporters, with a significant portion of Biden's base not voting in 2024. Non-voters in 2024 leaned toward Trump, who won a majority of voters who had skipped prior elections, particularly young men, indicating that increased turnout would still have favored Trump. The data also show that Trump's coalition became more diverse, with a notable increase in Hispanic, Black, and younger voters compared to previous elections, while Harris's coalition grew whiter. Despite slightly lower overall turnout in 2024 compared to 2020, the election saw the second highest turnout since 1904, and analyses suggest that even if every eligible voter had cast a ballot, Trump would still have won by a wider margin. These findings challenge the traditional notion that higher turnout benefits Democrats and highlight shifting demographic and turnout dynamics in American politics.