Partial U.S. Government Shutdown Likely; Trump Cancels Meeting

A partial federal government shutdown is increasingly likely as Congress races to pass funding before an Oct. 1 deadline, with prediction markets putting roughly a two‑in‑three chance amid a Capitol Hill stalemate. The White House and OMB have told agencies to prepare plans for mass firings and the administration says it is ready to lay off workers if funding lapses. The central dispute centers on health‑care funding: Democrats seek to restore ACA tax credits, reverse Medicaid cuts and extend pandemic programs, while Republicans favor a short‑term continuing resolution, leaving the House and Senate at odds. President Trump abruptly canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders, reducing prospects for a negotiated deal. Many core services (Social Security, Medicaid, USPS) would remain open and recent rules minimize some disruption and guarantee back pay, but a protracted partial shutdown could delay paychecks, hit contractors and disrupt loans, national parks and airport security. Analysts note most shutdowns have been short, but warn that the longer a shutdown lasts the greater the economic and public impacts will be.