The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Michigan is extremely close, with polls showing a near tie among likely voters. Despite Harris leading slightly when third-party candidates are included, Trump appears to have an edge on key issues such as the economy and immigration. Harris is also struggling with specific voter groups, including Muslim-Americans, who show significant support for other candidates. The recent presidential debate did not significantly change voter preferences, with most viewers' opinions remaining unchanged. Some analysts argue that despite the close race and alarming polls for Harris, the structural factors could still favor her. However, the reliability of election forecasts remains debated, with some experts cautioning against over-reliance on probabilistic models.