Shutdown Deadlock Risks Large Spike in ACA Premiums

The government shutdown continued into next week after the Senate repeatedly rejected both parties’ stopgap funding bills and lawmakers adjourned without a deal, with the House also delaying its return. Democrats insist any reopening include an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits due to expire at year’s end, while Republican leaders say they will not negotiate until the government reopens and some GOP senators say they cannot guarantee votes for an extension. Republicans have amplified claims that Democrats seek federally funded health care for undocumented immigrants, a charge Democrats call false and unrelated to current law, heightening partisan tensions. Polling from nonpartisan groups shows bipartisan public support for renewing enhanced subsidies, including among many Republican voters. Analysts warn premiums could spike if enhanced credits lapse — one estimate projects about a 114% nationwide average increase — and insurers’ 2026 marketplace filings already show wide variation and upward pressure driven by higher care prices, utilization, inflation, labor costs and rising prescription drug spending (including GLP‑1s). The shutdown has furloughed hundreds of thousands, disrupted federal services, frozen some federal funds for projects, and, with leaders dug in and public pressure mounting, a quick resolution appears unlikely.