Shutdown Likely; Parks Could Remain Open

A federal government shutdown appears likely to begin at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 1 after a White House meeting with congressional leaders failed to produce a deal, with prediction markets putting the odds near 80 percent. The impasse centers on Democrats' demands to reverse Medicaid cuts and extend Affordable Care Act premium tax credits while House Republicans push a short-term funding measure through Nov. 21 and refuse to negotiate health-care changes in the spending bill. The Office of Management and Budget has told agencies to consider reductions in force and President Trump has warned of permanent cuts, raising the prospect of layoffs rather than routine furloughs; non-excepted employees would be furloughed while excepted personnel — air traffic controllers, TSA officers, many law-enforcement agents and active-duty military — would continue working without pay. The National Park Service, which employs roughly 19,000 people, is revising contingency plans that could leave parks and trails physically accessible but operating with minimal staff and sharply reduced services, even as 40 former park superintendents and advocacy groups urged Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to fully close parks, citing damage and waste seen during the 2019 shutdown. States with large federal workforces — including Illinois (~153,000), Colorado (~54,300) and Minnesota (~20,000) — could face major local economic and service disruptions, and while Social Security, Medicare and veterans' care generally continue, programs like food assistance, passport and permit processing and tourism revenue could be disrupted if the shutdown drags on.