Truth Predict vs Polymarket: Prediction Markets Race

Trump Media & Technology Group launched Truth Predict, a Crypto.com‑powered, crypto‑backed prediction‑market feature to begin beta testing soon in the U.S., letting Truth Social users trade contracts on sports, politics, economics and convert in‑app “Truth gems” into Crypto.com’s Cronos (CRO) token. TMTG says Truth Predict would make Truth Social the first social platform to natively offer prediction markets and positions the company to compete with established players such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Blockchain‑native Polymarket is preparing a formal U.S. relaunch as soon as November with limited user access and an initial sports focus after exiting the U.S. in 2022 following a $1.4 million CFTC settlement; it has raised new capital, acquired QCX (which holds CFTC exchange and clearing licenses) and plans a native token. Truth Predict will rely on Crypto.com’s federally compliant derivatives and clearing infrastructure, while Polymarket emphasizes on‑chain, stablecoin trading, underscoring divergent technical and regulatory approaches. The simultaneous moves are accelerating competition, investor interest and political and regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, including attention tied to high‑profile connections such as the Trump family.