China's Steel Exports Set for Eight-Year High

China's steel exports are poised to reach an eight-year high, projected at 109 million tons for 2024, before experiencing a significant drop to 96 million tons by 2025 due to impending tariffs and declining domestic demand. In the first nine months of this year, exports surged 21.2% year-on-year to 80.7 million tons, driven by a shift in consumption towards manufacturing and new energy sectors. However, a protracted downturn in the property market has led to oversupply and weakened profitability among steelmakers. Analysts predict that growing anti-dumping measures and trade frictions will further impact steel shipments, which are already seen as “skewed to the downside.” As China grapples with a domestic supply glut, foreign markets have become increasingly critical for sustaining export levels. The country’s consumption is anticipated to remain below 900 million tons annually until at least 2035, exacerbating the challenges faced by its steel industry.