Misery Index Suggests Victory for Harris in 2024

The economic 'misery index', which combines unemployment and inflation rates, suggests a potential victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election, currently sitting at 7.02. Historically, this index has successfully predicted 15 of the last 16 presidential races, indicating that a reading below 7.353 would favor the incumbent party. Despite the favorable index, experts warn the race is extremely close, with Harris needing to secure key swing states to ensure an Electoral College win against Donald Trump. Additionally, falling gasoline prices and a modest decline in jobless rates are contributing to a less 'miserable' economic outlook. Polling data shows Harris leading Trump nationally, albeit narrowly, raising concerns over her ability to convert popular support into Electoral College votes. The stakes are high as the candidates prepare for a crucial debate that may sway undecided voters.