Republicans Gain Edge in 2024 Elections

The 2024 election has marked a significant shift in party identification, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats for the first time in decades by 5 points in the AP VoteCast survey. This change breaks a long-standing trend that favored Democrats since the New Deal, where they previously enjoyed advantages that sometimes reached a 2-1 margin. Historically, Republicans only drew even with Democrats during rare instances, such as the 1994 'Republican Revolution' and the immediate post-9/11 period. In Guam, the Republicans regained control of the legislative branch for the first time in 16 years, winning a decisive 9-6 seat edge despite an all-time low voter turnout of 48.3%. Meanwhile, discussions on gerrymandering suggest that it did not significantly distort this year's electoral outcomes, as Republican control of the House reflects their majority in the aggregate vote. This combination of events points to a possible realignment in American political identity and representation.