Australia’s Gold Exports Expected to Surpass Coal in Value 2026

Australia's export landscape is undergoing a significant shift as gold is set to surpass metallurgical coal as the nation's third-most valuable export by fiscal year 2026, reflecting increased global demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Government forecasts project gold export revenues to reach AUD 56 billion, up from previous years, while combined coal revenues are expected to total AUD 67 billion but face challenges from declining prices and shifting demand due to increased coal production in Asia and a regional move toward cleaner energy sources. Gold export volumes are expected to rise to 313 metric tons by 2026-27, reinforcing Australia's status as the world's largest net gold exporter. Despite a cautious forecast of gold prices declining to USD 2,825 per ounce, recent prices have surged above USD 3,400 per ounce, driven in part by policies under President Donald Trump's administration that are seen as supportive of gold. The coal sector faces pressure from four-year low prices and reduced demand from key markets like Japan, South Korea, China, and India, which are diversifying energy sources or boosting domestic supply. This transition highlights broader global macroeconomic and energy trends, with gold emerging as a more attractive investment amid ongoing market volatility.