UN: Climate Pledges Still Fall Short of 1.5°C

A UN synthesis of 64 new nationally determined contributions (NDCs), covering roughly 30% of 2019 global emissions, finds the latest pledges would bend global emissions downward for the first time. The pledges imply about an 11% decline in emissions by 2030 and roughly a 10–17% fall by 2035 depending on whether announced but not formally submitted targets are counted. UN officials cautioned the modest reduction is far short of the roughly 60% cut scientists say is needed by 2035 to keep warming to 1.5°C, and said ambition and implementation must accelerate. Major emitters including China, India and the EU have not formally filed full updated NDCs, and U.S. commitments submitted under the Biden administration face uncertainty following the Trump administration's withdrawal. The findings arrive days before COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where governments are expected to seek steps to close large ambition and implementation gaps. National examples such as Canada—now projected to miss its 2030 and 2035 targets as recent federal policy changes slow progress—underscore the need for stronger domestic measures alongside bolder international pledges.