Trump Predicted to Win 2024 Election by Five Points with Full Voter Turnout

A recent analysis from Blue Rose Research indicates that if every registered voter had participated in the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump would have defeated Kamala Harris by five points, significantly more than the actual 1.7-point margin. David Schor, the firm’s head and a prominent data scientist for the Democratic Party, highlighted that many registered Democrats were disillusioned with their party, particularly over inflation and economic issues. This dissatisfaction led to lower turnout among Democratic voters, with moderate and conservative Democrats opting to stay home rather than vote Republican. The findings suggest that a strategy focused solely on mobilizing voters could have backfired, exacerbating the Democratic Party's losses. Schor noted that the politically disengaged, who were neutral in 2020, shifted to favor Republicans by about 15 points in 2024. This analysis challenges the traditional belief that increased voter turnout is inherently beneficial for Democrats.