EU, US Race to Avert Looming Tariff War

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet US President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday to attempt to finalize a trade agreement that would avert a 30% US tariff on EU exports scheduled for next month. The potential deal could instead establish a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods and a 50% duty on steel and aluminium. EU negotiators have prepared $93 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US exports if talks fail, while both sides describe the prospects of an agreement as 50/50. The negotiations, inspired by a recent US-Japan trade pact, have fueled optimism in European luxury and auto markets. Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin and other EU officials hope a framework agreement can be reached by the weekend, with further product-specific discussions to follow. The meeting marks the first direct talks between Trump and von der Leyen since his 2025 inauguration and aims to prevent a transatlantic trade war.