IEA Lowers Global Renewable Growth Forecast to 4,600GW by 2030 Due to US China Policy Shifts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global renewable power growth forecast for 2030 by 900 gigawatts to 4,600 GW, mainly due to policy shifts in the United States and China. In the U.S., federal tax incentives for renewables have been phased out early, cutting growth expectations by nearly 50%, while China’s move from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions has made projects less economically attractive. Conversely, India is emerging as the second-largest growth market with improved policies and faster permitting, and Europe and many emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are accelerating renewable deployments. Solar power is expected to drive around 80% of new capacity globally, benefiting from declining costs and quicker approval processes, though the IEA warns about supply chain concentration in China. Offshore wind growth is weaker due to policy and supply chain issues, while pumped-storage hydropower and geothermal energy show promising growth. These developments reflect the complex global dynamics shaping renewable energy expansion amid varying regional policy landscapes and market challenges.