US-India-EU Trade Talks Spur China Warnings, Global Uncertainty

As the 90-day tariff reprieve granted by President Trump approaches its July 9 expiration, the United States is intensifying negotiations with countries including India, the European Union, Japan, and Vietnam to finalize bilateral trade agreements aimed at avoiding the reinstatement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. China has warned that it will take firm countermeasures against any country striking trade deals with the U.S. at China’s expense, urging all parties to resolve disputes through equal consultations and uphold multilateral trade rules. India is under pressure to reach an interim trade deal with the U.S. to avoid a 10% tariff on its exports while protecting critical sectors like agriculture and digital infrastructure; the Global Trade Research Initiative cautions against politically motivated or unbalanced agreements. Meanwhile, U.S. trade partners remain wary of signing deals without clarity on impending sector-specific tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which could impose levies on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and steel, potentially undermining negotiated agreements. A recent pause in U.S.-China tariff escalations has introduced short-term stability, with tariffs capped and hopes for more organized negotiations despite ongoing tensions over rare earth exports and technology controls. These developments reflect a complex and cautious global trade environment as countries navigate the risks and opportunities presented by U.S. trade policy under President Trump.