Russia Plans Fiscal Resilience Amid Global Economic Shifts

Russia is taking steps to bolster its fiscal defenses amid global economic uncertainty, including a review of its oil revenue strategies to ensure budget stability despite lower prices and export revenues. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, with strong support from President Putin, are focusing on maintaining macroeconomic stability and financial resilience in the face of Western sanctions and volatile energy markets. However, some analysts warn that Russia's heavy reliance on oil and gas revenues exposes structural vulnerabilities, with a recent report suggesting the Russian war economy could be at risk of collapse before Ukraine's, especially as Western support continues to sustain Ukraine's wartime economy. Despite these concerns, other experts argue that Russia’s economic model has become more durable due to lessons learned from past crises and a gradual shift toward stimulating domestic demand. These divergent viewpoints highlight both the strengths and fragilities in Russia's approach to navigating ongoing fiscal, geopolitical, and trade pressures.