Impending Shutdown Threatens NFIP, Jobs Data, Real Estate

Federal funding is set to expire at midnight and last‑minute talks have stalled, making a government shutdown likely unless negotiators reach a quick deal. The standoff centers on health care: Democrats insist Republicans reverse recent Medicaid cuts and extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, while Republicans have offered a short‑term funding plan through Nov. 21 and blame Democrats for the impasse. President Trump has publicly blamed Democrats, warned of sweeping and potentially “irreversible” cuts and layoffs, and the Office of Management and Budget has ordered agencies to prepare for mass firings. A shutdown would furlough many federal workers, force others to work without pay, disrupt services such as passport and visa processing and parts of the National Park Service, and leave contractors unpaid; the U.S. Postal Service and mandatory programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and VA care would generally continue but face administrative delays. It would also suspend many nonessential operations — including National Flood Insurance Program issuances and renewals (affecting over 4.7 million policyholders and roughly 400,000 policies set to expire in October) and large parts of the Bureau of Labor Statistics — likely delaying scheduled monthly jobs and CPI releases (including the September jobs report due Oct. 3) and imperiling real‑estate transactions. Economists warn missing or degraded data would complicate Federal Reserve decisions and raise market volatility, and some firms estimate a shutdown could shave roughly 0.1 percentage point off GDP per week.