JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk Amid Trump's Tariffs

JPMorgan has increased its global recession probability to 60% following the announcement of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump. The tariffs, described as the largest tax hike since 1968, include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports with higher rates for certain countries, potentially reaching 50%. This move has been seen as a substantial macroeconomic shock, with expected retaliatory measures, supply chain disruptions, and a decline in business sentiment. Despite Trump's assurance of an economic boom, major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Moody's Analytics have also raised recession forecasts due to these tariffs. The financial markets have reacted negatively, with significant declines in major indices such as the S&P 500. Analysts warn that while the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong, the ongoing trade restrictions could lead to longer-term growth issues.