OPEC+ Expected to Hike Oil Output by 550,000 BPD in September

Goldman Sachs forecasts that eight OPEC+ members will raise their oil production quotas by approximately 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the unwinding of around 2.2 million bpd in voluntary output cuts that began in April. This production increase follows an unexpected larger boost of 548,000 bpd approved for August, signaling OPEC+'s strategic shift from defending oil prices to focusing on normalizing spare capacity, regaining market share, and disciplining U.S. shale supply. The group, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, also plans to finalize a 300,000 bpd quota increase for the UAE, reflecting its long-pursued goal to raise production capacity. The overall production hikes since April would total about 2.47 million bpd, nearly 2.5% of global demand, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE approaching 10 million bpd and 3.375 million bpd respectively. Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent crude price forecast around $59 per barrel for Q4 2025, citing balanced risks, and anticipates global oil demand growth driven by strong Chinese consumption, resilient global economic activity, and a weaker U.S. dollar. The moves come amid ongoing efforts by OPEC+ to stabilize the market and respond to geopolitical and economic factors, including U.S. President Donald Trump's calls for increased output to keep gasoline prices lower.