Political Polls Underestimate Trump's Florida Support

Donald Trump's claim of an 'unprecedented and powerful mandate' from his 2024 election win has been called into question, as a recent study shows his popular vote margin of 1.7% is the smallest since 2000. This victory ranks lower than those of previous presidents, including Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and is cited as the fifth-smallest since 1960. Meanwhile, Republican registration efforts showed unexpected success, with new polling methods revealing a surge of new GOP voters, particularly in key states like Georgia and Virginia. Pollsters, however, acknowledged they often underestimated Republican turnout, as was the case in Florida where polls projected Trump's victory by an average of 8% but he won by over 13%. The underperformance of polls has raised concerns about their reliability, as they tend to miss the sentiments of late-deciders and struggle with accurately capturing the opinions of various voter demographics. Overall, these developments highlight ongoing challenges in predicting electoral outcomes and understanding voter behavior.