Oil Prices Slump After Israel-Iran Ceasefire Eases Supply Risks

Oil prices experienced a volatile week, ultimately trending lower by about 12% after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran eased fears of Middle East supply disruptions. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate prices both edged higher on Friday, supported by tightening U.S. crude and fuel inventories, rising refining activity, and increased summer fuel demand. Analysts highlighted that crude inventories have become unexpectedly tight, while a weakening U.S. dollar, influenced by President Donald Trump's anticipated early selection of the next Federal Reserve chair, made oil more affordable globally. Market focus is also shifting toward potential impacts from upcoming U.S. trade agreements and the scheduled July 6 OPEC+ meeting, expected to increase production and potentially lead to a market surplus by year-end barring renewed conflict. Despite the recent easing of geopolitical tensions, investors remain attentive to trade developments and OPEC decisions that could influence oil supply and demand dynamics. Overall, the week reflected a complex interplay of geopolitical, economic, and market factors shaping oil prices.