Prop 50 Likely to Boost Democratic House Seats

Proposition 50 would temporarily replace California’s citizen-drawn congressional map with legislature-drawn lines for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections and is designed to create up to five Democratic-leaning districts. Multiple recent polls show a clear majority of likely voters backing the measure (Public Policy Institute ~56%; Emerson College ~57–60%; CBS News/YouGov ~62%), making passage on Nov. 4 appear likely, and ballots are being mailed to all active registered voters. Pro-50 backers have outraised opponents roughly $129 million to about $46 million, and Gov. Gavin Newsom told donors to stop contributing after fundraising targets were met. Opponents, including donor Charlie Munger Jr., call the proposal a partisan gerrymander and raise concerns about pairing disparate rural and urban communities under the new lines. Supporters frame the move as defending democracy and blocking Republican efforts to reshape the House; if approved, responsibility for redistricting would return to the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission after the 2030 Census and the measure would be a political win for Newsom.