Markets, Polls Signal Tight State and City Races

Prediction markets and recent polls show several tight, high‑stakes state and city contests. Kalshi’s market recorded heavy volume on whether Mikie Sherrill will win New Jersey by 0–1.99 points, implying an ~11% chance and over $500,000 lifetime volume, signaling market attention to a potentially narrow outcome. Aggregated polls show Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races narrowing: RealClearPolitics averages put Abigail Spanberger about 6.9 points ahead in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill about 4.6 points ahead in New Jersey, suggesting Republicans are performing closer to past Trump margins than expected. In New York, a Manhattan Institute poll unexpectedly showed Rep. Elise Stefanik slightly ahead of Gov. Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical statewide matchup, highlighting Democratic vulnerability. Florida surveys show strong early GOP advantages for potential 2026 nominees Casey DeSantis and Byron Donalds, while Iowa polling has Democrat Rob Sand narrowly leading Randy Feenstra. New York City's three‑way mayoral race between Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa has drawn international interest and intense late campaigning as voters head to the polls on Nov. 4.