Paid Poll: Hochul Lead Evaporates, Stefanik Slightly Ahead

A GrayHouse survey paid for Rep. Elise Stefanik’s E-PAC of 1,250 likely 2026 voters initially found Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Stefanik 48%–43%, but that margin evaporated and Stefanik edged 46.4% to 45.9% after respondents heard both candidates’ records, including Hochul’s endorsement of New York City mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani. The survey found Hochul’s job approval underwater (39% approve, 56% disapprove) and 59% of voters saying it is time for someone new. It reported 47% of independents would be less likely to support Hochul or other Democrats if Mamdani wins, with respondents citing concerns about bail reform and the high cost of living. Pollster Landon Wall characterized Hochul as “deeply vulnerable,” and Stefanik and conservative outlets have used the results to portray her as embattled; the poll’s sponsorship and framing should be considered when interpreting the findings. The survey also indicated Hochul faces weak support in a potential Democratic primary from Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.