Historian Lichtman Predicts Harris Will Win 2024

Historian Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting presidential elections, has asserted that an 'October surprise' will not alter his forecast for the 2024 election, which predicts Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump. Lichtman, utilizing a system called 'The Keys to the White House', argues that the keys assess broader governance issues rather than campaign events, rendering the October surprise concept a myth. Historically, significant events like Trump's Access Hollywood tape in 2016 did not impact election outcomes, supporting Lichtman's perspective. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has expressed support for a ceasefire in the ongoing Israeli offensive in Lebanon, which some analysts suggest could serve as an 'October surprise' affecting U.S. elections. The complex dynamics of U.S.-Israel relations and internal pressures within Israel may further complicate the political landscape in the lead-up to the election. As the political climate evolves, the influence of such unexpected events on voter sentiment remains uncertain.