Rep Elise Stefanik Slightly Leads Gov Kathy Hochul in New York 2026 Poll

A Manhattan Institute poll shows Rep. Elise Stefanik leading Gov. Kathy Hochul 43% to 42% in a hypothetical 2026 New York gubernatorial matchup — a result that falls within the survey’s roughly 3% margin of error but gives Stefanik a one-point edge. The survey (reportedly polling 600 likely voters in New York City and 300 registered voters statewide) found 9% for other candidates and 7% undecided, and it indicated Stefanik’s strength with independents and on Long Island while Hochul led in parts of the Hudson Valley. The finding sharply narrows earlier Siena College polls that showed Hochul with a double-digit lead, prompting both campaigns to spin the results: Stefanik’s team hailed it as evidence New Yorkers want “commonsense leadership,” while Hochul’s campaign dismissed the poll as biased and attacked Stefanik’s ties to Trump and major conservative donors. The Manhattan Institute survey also highlighted local dynamics by showing Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani leading Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral matchup, a backdrop both sides have referenced in recent attacks. Observers note the contest is now competitive and volatile, with different pollsters producing markedly different pictures of the race.