Solar, Wind Surpass Coal; IEA Cuts 2030 Forecast

An Ember analysis of electricity data from 88 countries found solar and wind generated more electricity than coal in the first half of 2025, driven by record solar growth of 31% and wind growth of 7.7%; solar now supplies about 8.8% of global electricity. Global electricity demand rose 2.6%, but renewables added more generation than demand increased, slightly reducing fossil-fuel generation and limiting CO2 emissions growth. The International Energy Agency has trimmed its 2025–2030 renewables outlook by several hundred gigawatts and now projects roughly 4,600 GW of total renewable capacity by 2030, down from earlier forecasts. The IEA attributed the weaker capacity outlook mainly to U.S. policy measures (earlier phase-out of tax credits, import limits, and restrictions on federal lands and offshore projects) and China’s shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions, even as deployment accelerates in India, parts of Europe and MENA. While renewables’ momentum could allow them to overtake coal globally by late 2025, policy headwinds in major markets risk undermining the capacity growth needed to meet the UN’s goal of tripling renewables by 2030.