YouGov: Reform UK About 311 Seats; Hung Parliament Possible

A YouGov MRP mega‑poll of about 13,000 people in late September projects Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win roughly 311 seats (modelled range about 271–342), putting the party in pole position to lead Parliament but about 15 seats short of a 326‑seat majority. The projection would wipe out Labour’s 2024 majority, with Labour’s seat total estimated to fall into the low hundreds or even the low 100s, while the Conservatives are forecast to slump to fourth place with only a few dozen seats. The MRP method combines constituency‑level modelling with census and polling data and carries margins of error, meaning a hung parliament, coalition talks or a minority government remain possible even if Reform tops the poll. Commentators and polling experts have cautioned about model uncertainty and pointed to Farage’s perceived un‑prime‑ministerial qualities and controversial ties, so the result is not a guarantee he will become prime minister.