India’s Diesel Exports to Europe Surge 137% Ahead of EU 2026 Ban

India's diesel exports to Europe surged dramatically in August 2025, with volumes increasing by approximately 137% year-over-year to around 242,000 barrels per day, driven largely by European buyers stockpiling fuel ahead of the European Union's ban on petroleum products refined from Russian crude effective January 2026. This surge is attributed to multiple factors including an early maintenance shutdown at Shell's Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, anticipated higher winter demand, and the looming EU sanctions that restrict imports of fuels derived from Russian crude, which heavily impacts Indian refiners like Reliance Industries. Despite criticism from the US and its allies accusing India of profiting by processing discounted Russian crude and exporting it to Europe, India maintains that its actions are legal and that buyers opposed to this can simply stop purchasing Indian fuels. Data from analytics providers Kpler and Vortexa confirm the rise in exports, with some variation in volume estimates, and experts expect sustained strong European demand for Indian diesel throughout 2025 as the EU ban approaches. The advanced refinery maintenance is seen by some as a strategic move to manage supply ahead of the ban, ensuring European markets are not disrupted once the restrictions come into force. Overall, India's role as a significant diesel supplier to Europe is intensifying amid geopolitical tensions and shifting global energy trade flows.