Supply Disruptions Drive Oil Volatility

A planned restart of about 230,000 barrels per day of exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region stalled, prompting a repricing of near‑term supply risk that forced short squeezes and lifted WTI to about $65.29, its highest since early September. Additional supply disruptions — including Chevron cutting some Venezuelan shipments over U.S. permitting issues and Russia curbing diesel exports after drone strikes on fuel infrastructure — tightened availability of sour/heavy barrels and supported prompt contracts. Geopolitical tensions, such as NATO warnings over airspace incursions, Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets and President Trump urging Turkey to halt Russian oil purchases, added a further risk premium. Despite those rallies, Brent and WTI later retreated from seven‑week highs as investors took profits and weighed slower winter demand and signs that Kurdish barrels could return. U.S. EIA data showed a modest crude draw alongside mixed product stocks, and market participants cautioned that rising OPEC+ and non‑OPEC output, slower demand growth and structural headwinds like EV adoption still cap the potential for a sustained breakout.