OPEC+ Phased Output Return, Oil Prices Slide

Oil prices fell to multi‑week lows as worries about a possible OPEC+ output boost and a weaker demand outlook — including a US government shutdown — were compounded by US crude inventories rising about 1.8 million barrels. Traders and analysts expect OPEC+ to keep raising production into November, with estimates for the next increase ranging roughly from 137,000 bpd to reports as high as 500,000 bpd, though OPEC has disputed some media figures. Surveys show OPEC/OPEC+ production climbed in September as Saudi Arabia completed the first tranche of restarted supplies, with Bloomberg’s survey near 29.05 million bpd and Reuters/flow‑based estimates around 28.40 million bpd, underscoring measurement differences. The group is unwinding voluntary cuts in phases while some members face compensation cuts for prior overproduction, making the net market impact more complex and potentially limiting how much supply immediately returns. Many analysts caution the oversupply story may be exaggerated given demand supports such as Chinese stockpiling, constrained Russian diesel exports and seasonal winter heating needs, and OPEC+ panels have urged full compliance and phased returns to avoid shocking the market.