Fed Cautious as Hiring Stalls, RBI Holds Rates

Private-sector indicators suggest U.S. hiring largely stalled in September: ADP reported a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, Indeed job postings fell about 2.5%, and ISM surveys showed continued job shedding, while a government shutdown has delayed the official payroll report. Those mixed signals have left uncertainty about whether softer hiring is transitory or more persistent, prompting caution from Fed officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she is open to further cuts if inflation eases and the economy performs, Dallas Fed Chief Lorie Logan urged caution on additional reductions, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned tariff-driven price pressures could become persistent and raise stagflation risks. Abroad, the Reserve Bank of India held its repo rate at 5.5%, raised its FY26 growth forecast to 6.8% and cut its inflation projection to 2.6%, citing resilient domestic demand and GST measures while flagging U.S. tariffs as a headwind to exports. Taken together, central banks face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and defending price stability amid tariff-related inflation risks and delayed U.S. labor data.