Mortgage Rates Dip to 6.16%, Refinances Rise

Mortgage rates dipped in October 2025 to roughly 6.16–6.17%, their lowest since mid‑September and near one‑ to three‑year lows, driven by modest improvement in the mortgage bond market and lenders entering days with pricing cushions. Some lenders are advertising their lowest rates in over a year, prompting a pickup in refinance activity, while bond‑market dynamics are making rates move in discrete jumps. Housing‑market signals are tilting toward buyers: inventory is up, homes are taking longer to sell (around a near‑decade‑high 50 days on market), and typical September sales fetched about 1.4% below final list price — the largest September discount since 2019 — improving negotiating leverage. Markets are watching upcoming Federal Reserve meetings for expected cuts that could push rates lower, but the ongoing government shutdown, which has delayed key economic releases and suspended the National Flood Insurance Program, is complicating Fed decision‑making and could slow loan processing and closings. Consumer sentiment remains weak — 73% in Fannie Mae’s September reading said it was a bad time to buy — and homeowners weighing refinancing should consider timing, closing costs and seasoning rules (about six months for many conventional loans and roughly 210 days for many VA loans). Acute problems accessing homeowners’ insurance in high climate‑risk states — roughly 26.1% of U.S. homes, with a combined value of about $12.7 trillion, are exposed to at least one type of climate risk — add another layer of cost and risk for borrowers and insurers.