PVV Lead Shrinks in Dutch Snap Election

The Netherlands held a knife‑edge snap parliamentary election that served as a test of Europe’s far‑right, with the campaign dominated by migration, healthcare and an acute housing crisis. Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party (PVV) was narrowly ahead but its lead has crumbled; poll projections put the PVV at roughly 24–28 seats (down from 37 in 2023) while a large share of voters remained undecided. All major parties have ruled out governing with Wilders, making it unlikely he can form a government without an unexpectedly large plurality. The outgoing coalition collapsed after Wilders withdrew over hardline asylum demands in June, triggering the snap vote. Under the Netherlands’ highly fragmented proportional system (0.67% yields one seat), coalitions of four to five parties are likely and negotiations to form a stable government could take weeks or months.