Bank for International Settlements Warns Global Economy at Pivotal Moment Amid Trade Tensions

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a stark warning that the global economy is at a pivotal and uncertain turning point marked by rising trade tensions, fractious geopolitics, and declining trust in institutions including central banks. Outgoing BIS General Manager Agustin Carstens highlighted how U.S.-led trade wars and protectionist policies threaten the established global economic order, exacerbating long-term declines in productivity and growth. The report underscores additional vulnerabilities from population aging, climate change, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and high public debt, limiting governments' ability to respond to shocks. BIS chief economist Hyun Song Shin noted the significant depreciation of the U.S. dollar but attributed it to investor hedging amid uncertainty rather than a broad pullback. The BIS also emphasized the end of the era of low interest rates, urging policymakers to balance inflation control with financial stability in a more volatile environment, with risks heightened for emerging markets and non-bank financial institutions operating with less oversight. President Donald Trump's looming July 9 tariff deadline and his public criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell were noted, though Carstens described tensions between government and central banks as expected and almost by design.