Ukraine's Drone Strikes Disrupt Nearly 40% of Russian Oil Refining Capacity Causing Fuel Shortages

Ukraine has intensified its drone strikes on Russian oil refineries in 2025, targeting 21 of Russia's 38 large refineries and severely disrupting the country's oil refining capacity. These attacks have caused nearly 38% of Russia’s refining capacity to go offline, leading to fuel shortages, soaring prices, and long queues at gas stations in Russia and occupied territories, as well as forcing export bans on gasoline and partial bans on diesel. The strikes have damaged some of Russia's most lucrative refineries, such as those near Volgograd, Ryazan, Kirishi, and Salavat, with repair times measured in months or years due to sanctions and lack of access to critical spare parts. In response to the domestic fuel crisis, Russia is preparing to import gasoline from China, South Korea, Singapore, and Belarus, while also lifting import duties and subsidizing fuel imports to stabilize the market. Ukrainian President Zelensky has emphasized that targeting Russia’s oil industry is a key strategy to pressure Russia into negotiations, as the refined fuel output drops significantly and Russian fossil fuel export revenues decline. Despite Russian government measures, risks remain high for further deterioration in fuel supply amid ongoing attacks and sanctions.