Saudi Arabia Plans Major Oil Output Increase Amid Global Economic Challenges

Saudi Arabia is aggressively pushing OPEC+ to increase oil output, threatening a price war to discipline members who are exceeding their production quotas. In recent months, OPEC+ has implemented larger-than-planned supply hikes, adding nearly one million barrels per day to an already well-supplied market, with the possibility of fully restoring 2.2 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of this year. These moves have driven oil prices below $60 a barrel, raising concerns for producers with higher fiscal breakeven points. While Saudi Arabia has historically used similar strategies to assert dominance, current global economic uncertainty and weaker demand—partly due to trade tensions—may limit the effectiveness of these tactics. The Saudi-led policy shift introduces additional market volatility, as OPEC+ will now review output levels monthly and could accelerate supply increases if members do not comply. Ultimately, the kingdom's ability to tolerate prolonged low oil prices remains a key factor in how far this strategy can go.