Economists See Lower Recession Risk Stronger Job Growth in WSJ Survey

Economists have become somewhat more optimistic about the U.S. economy under President Trump's policies, as indicated by The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey. They now forecast a lower risk of recession, cooler inflation, and stronger job growth, with GDP expected to grow 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from previous forecasts. This improved outlook follows three months of positive economic data, including steady job growth averaging 150,000 per month and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Despite the recent easing of tariff threats earlier in the year, President Trump’s renewed tariff threats starting August 1 have introduced some uncertainty that could affect future sentiment. Economists remain cautiously optimistic, noting the economy's resilience but acknowledging the ongoing trade uncertainties and muted growth. Overall, the mood has shifted from bold to careful, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid the evolving policy landscape.