WTO Revises 2025 Global Trade Growth Forecast Up to 2.4%, Lowers 2026 Outlook

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 from 0.9% to 2.4%, driven by increased trade in artificial intelligence-related goods and preemptive import activity in the U.S. However, it has simultaneously downgraded its 2026 growth projection sharply to 0.5% from 1.8%, reflecting the anticipated full impact of tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration and retaliatory measures from other countries. The WTO highlights that this mixed outlook occurs amid steady global GDP growth, expected at 2.7% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the resilience of the world trading system, which depends on a rules-based multilateral framework despite ongoing trade tensions. The tariff-induced uncertainty has unsettled financial markets and prompted negotiations among global trade partners, including the EU, to seek more stable agreements. Overall, the WTO's revised forecasts illustrate a complex and evolving economic landscape shaped by trade policy dynamics and technological trade shifts.