Oil Prices Steady Amid US Tariff Threats, Trump Russia Statement Anticipated

Oil prices have steadied and shown modest gains despite escalating trade tensions and tariff threats from President Donald Trump, who has proposed tariffs up to 30% on imports from the EU and Mexico. These trade measures have dampened risk appetite and raised concerns about global energy demand. Investors are also closely watching a "major statement" Trump is expected to make regarding Russia, with the potential for additional sanctions targeting Russian energy, which could significantly impact the oil market. The International Energy Agency lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing weaker demand from emerging markets, while forecasting increased supply growth due to OPEC+ output returns. Meanwhile, US crude stockpiles have risen sharply, and fresh US sanctions on Iranian crude exports have introduced further complexity, although some analysts remain skeptical about the sanctions' long-term effectiveness. Despite these factors, market conditions show some near-term support with signs of tightness in the physical oil market, though concerns about a future crude glut persist amid OPEC+ supply adjustments.