WTO Reports AI Could Boost Global Trade Nearly 40% by 2040 Amid Policy Gaps

Artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to significantly boost global trade and economic growth by 2040, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimating a 34 to 37 percent increase in global trade and a 12 to 13 percent rise in GDP if digital divides between low-, middle-, and high-income countries are addressed through policy and investment. The WTO stresses that equitable access to AI technologies and AI-enabling goods like semiconductors is crucial to avoid widening the gap between richer and poorer nations, as current trade restrictions and high tariffs limit such access. Experts at Bryant University's 2025 Global Trade Summit echoed these sentiments, highlighting AI's importance for economic competitiveness and national security, emphasizing the need for American-developed AI platforms. Northern Ireland’s Economy Minister also highlighted AI as a key tool to close productivity gaps, stressing collaboration and investment to harness AI's benefits effectively. Despite AI's vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity, disparities in digital infrastructure and trade policies remain major challenges. The WTO continues to advocate for open and predictable trade policies to maximize AI's inclusive growth benefits globally.