U.S. CPI Rises 0.3% in September

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in September and 3.0% year‑over‑year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually, slightly below economists' expectations. Gasoline and overall energy were the main monthly drivers (gasoline +4.1%, energy +1.5%), while shelter inflation continued to cool (shelter +0.2%, owners' equivalent rent +0.1%, the smallest monthly gain since 2021). The report was delayed by the government shutdown, prompting the Labor Department to recall staff because CPI is needed to set Social Security’s annual cost‑of‑living adjustment, and other data remain missing. Economists flagged tariff pass‑through and a weaker dollar as contributors to higher goods prices, and some sticky core services and gains in goods leave uncertainty about the path for further disinflation. Markets took the softer‑than‑expected print as reinforcing expectations of a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, though the report — the first major data since the shutdown — will heavily shape Fed deliberations amid a still‑murky labor‑market picture.