ACA Premiums Expected to Spike Nationwide as Subsidies Decline

Health insurance premiums for the 24 million people enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans are projected to rise sharply in 2026, with insurers seeking an average increase of about 15%, the largest in seven years. This spike comes alongside the expiration of enhanced COVID-era subsidies, which capped out-of-pocket costs and expanded eligibility, leading to record enrollment under President Trump and the GOP's policies. Without these subsidies, many consumers will face significantly higher monthly premiums and may become uninsured, as the financial burden becomes unsustainable for some. Insurers attribute the increases to rising medical and labor costs, but also cite uncertainty around federal policy changes and potential subsidy expirations. The policy changes, including added paperwork requirements and Medicaid spending cuts, are expected to take effect gradually. Lawmakers from both parties are reportedly exploring measures to mitigate the subsidy reductions amid growing political concern ahead of midterm elections. Additionally, the rising costs are impacting insurers financially, as seen in the declining stock and lowered profit outlook of Elevance Health, a major player in Medicaid and ACA markets.