Tariff Uncertainty Challenges Oil, Gas Investment Decisions

At CERAWeek 2025, Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist, highlighted rising policy uncertainty in the U.S., particularly regarding tariffs, which is contributing to growing recession fears. He noted that while soft data, such as survey sentiment, is declining, hard data remains stable, suggesting potential investment pullbacks by firms and reduced consumer spending. This sentiment is echoed by others in the financial sector, who acknowledge the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy but warn of increasing downside risks. Additionally, former President Trump's tariffs are projected to drive inflation and complicate decisions for the Federal Reserve, as it navigates between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth. While some officials maintain that the economy is performing better than reported, uncertainty around tariffs and policy changes persists. The discussion of tariffs has reignited debates about their impact on inflation rates and the overall economy under both the Biden and Trump administrations.