Off‑Year Elections Seen as Trump Referendum

Tuesday’s off-year elections — including gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, the New York City mayoral race and a California redistricting referendum — are being widely watched as an early referendum on President Trump’s second term even though he is not on the ballot. Strategists say results will show whether Trump’s base stays engaged in nonpresidential contests and whether candidates can win in blue states by adopting or rejecting a Trump‑style agenda. Voters are focused on pocketbook issues such as cost‑of‑living and local governance, while cultural fights (abortion, gender policy) and campaign scandals — notably inflammatory texts tied to Virginia’s attorney‑general contest — are reshaping races. Observers warn that lower turnout in odd‑year contests magnifies each vote’s impact, making down‑ballot races and courts critically important; consequential local measures include Mehlville School District’s Proposition A, which would make a capital levy permanent to raise $1.4 million annually without raising taxes. All of this plays out as the federal government faces a record‑long shutdown, a backdrop that could influence voter sentiment.