2026 Social Security COLA Expected Around 2.8% Offset by Rising Medicare Premiums

The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is expected to be around 2.7% to 2.8%, providing a slight increase in benefits for retirees, though Medicare Part B premiums are also anticipated to rise, potentially offsetting much of the COLA increase. Despite this adjustment, many retirees remain concerned that the COLA will not keep pace with real inflation, especially given rising tariffs and economic uncertainties under President Trump's administration, leading some to cut spending or dip into savings. The Social Security Trust Funds are projected to be able to pay full benefits only until 2034, after which, without congressional action, benefits could be partially reduced, though current SSA leadership and President Trump have stated they will not cut benefits or raise the retirement age. The program's financial challenges are compounded by legislative changes, including President Trump's tax and spending policies, which may undermine Social Security's funding and increase the risk of benefit cuts up to 23% starting in about seven years. These developments underscore the precarious state of Social Security, highlighting the urgent need for legislative solutions to protect this critical source of retirement income for millions of Americans.