Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Risk Outlook

Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% within the next 12 months, citing President Trump's aggressive tariff policies as a significant factor. The tariffs, set to be announced on 'Liberation Day,' are expected to average 15% across U.S. trading partners, potentially leading to increased consumer prices and inflation. The bank also predicts a slowdown in GDP growth to 1% and anticipates the Federal Reserve will respond with three interest rate cuts this year. This economic uncertainty has led to a downgraded outlook for the S&P 500, with projections suggesting a potential drop in stock market values. Analysts warn that the escalating trade war could further disrupt economic confidence, impacting both consumers and businesses.