Senate Control Risks Rise as Democrats Target GOP Seats in Iowa, Minnesota

In the 2026 Senate races, Democrats face challenges but see opportunities in several states. In Minnesota, the retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith has led to a competitive Democratic primary, but Republicans struggle to find a credible candidate, shifting the race to Likely Democrat. Iowa presents a tougher battleground where incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is targeted by Democrats due to her controversial Medicaid vote and ethics questions, yet the state remains Republican-leaning, with Ernst holding a slight lead in early polls against Democratic challenger Jackie Norris. Despite Democrats’ low favorability ratings nationally, they maintain a lead in the generic congressional ballot, suggesting potential to reclaim the House in the midterms. However, Republicans hold a net advantage in party favorability, and shifts in public opinion driven by President Donald Trump and GOP efforts could impact the 2026 outcomes. Overall, Democrats are focusing on states like Iowa and Minnesota to regain Senate control, though the political environment remains challenging.