Virginia Special Election Expected Shrinks Johnson House GOP Majority

House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) slim Republican majority in the House is expected to shrink following the Virginia special election to fill the seat of the late Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly. Democrat James Walkinshaw, Connolly's former chief of staff and a Fairfax County supervisor, is heavily favored to win, which would reduce Johnson's majority from three seats to two, limiting his ability to lose GOP votes on party-line legislation. This narrowing majority poses significant challenges for Johnson, especially with the upcoming government funding deadline, as over a dozen conservative Republicans often oppose short-term spending bills, increasing the risk of legislative gridlock. Additional special elections for the late Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva and the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner, both Democrats, are also expected to further reduce Johnson's majority if those seats remain Democratic, potentially shrinking the margin to a single vote. Meanwhile, a special election to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green may help the GOP, but the overall trend tightens the balance of power. The outcome of these special elections is critical as both parties prepare for the 2026 midterms amid ongoing political battles.