US Plans 50% Tariff on Brazilian Coffee Imports Impacting Trade, Prices

The Trump administration's imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee, effective August 6, 2025, is expected to significantly disrupt the U.S. coffee industry, as Brazil supplies roughly 30% of the coffee consumed in the United States. This tariff is likely to cause higher prices for American consumers and force coffee roasters and retailers to either absorb costs or raise prices, with some companies already having increased prices earlier in the year due to supply pressures. Brazilian coffee exporters may pivot towards growing markets like China, where coffee consumption is rapidly increasing, while U.S. buyers may turn to alternative suppliers such as Colombia, Vietnam, or Ethiopia, though these shifts could alter coffee flavor profiles and disrupt established supply contracts. Despite the tariff's severity, several major Brazilian exports, including orange juice and commercial aircraft, have been exempted, mitigating the overall economic impact on Brazil. The tariff appears politically motivated amid tensions involving Brazil’s former president, Bolsonaro, and Trump’s criticisms of Brazil’s judiciary, though Brazil has not yet responded with retaliatory measures. The move is part of broader trade policy shifts under President Trump and poses particular challenges for smaller specialty coffee roasters with limited capacity to adjust supply chains or absorb cost increases.